Here’s Barry the Toasted Marxist!
Historically, Obama isn’t in strong shape
The bottom line: Historically speaking, this president is in weaker shape than any postwar incumbent who went on to victory, with the possible exception of Harry Truman; he is enjoying a convention bounce later in the cycle than any incumbent in the postwar era; and if he manages to win, it will probably be via a true squeaker, with plenty of twists and turns to come.
Democrats are celebrating and Republicans panicking prematurely. I’d wait until October 1 to see where the race is before I give anybody a decisive edge one way or the other.
Gallup: America’s distrust of media hits a new high.
Americans’ distrust in the media hit a new high this year, with 60% saying they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. Distrust is up from the past few years, when Americans were already more negative about the media than they had been in years prior to 2004. …
This year’s decline in media trust is driven by independents and Republicans. The 31% and 26%, respectively, who express a great deal or fair amount of trust are record lows and are down significantly from last year. Republicans’ level of trust this year is similar to what they expressed in the fall of 2008, implying that they are especially critical of election coverage.
Pravda West flailing.
Gallup tracker: Romney now even with Obama at 47
Eight days ago it was 50/44, today it’s a dead heat. I already wrote about O’s fade (or, more accurately, his disappearing convention bounce) in the Gallup tracker two days ago, so read that if you missed it then. What makes this poll interesting isn’t the raw numbers but the fact that he’s still on a downward slope despite two days of media hyperventilation over Romney’s “47 percent” remarks.
Karl Rove: Obama’s in desperate shape in swing states.
Rove noted that Obama was ahead of Sen. John McCain then with 55 percent of likely voters, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in mid-September of that campaign.
“So Mitt Romney is already running ahead of the pace of John McCain. And President Obama is running . . . over six points behind where he did in these states in 2008,” Rove told Cavuto.
“It’s amazing to me,” Rove said, adding that he would be worried “if I were in the White House and looking at this.”
Too much to post here… click over there, pilgrim.
Which brings me back to polls, and why Romney will be our next president. Polls are largely not picking up on blacks’ massive loss of passion for Obama. All of their turnout models assume that in November, blacks will vote for Obama in the same numbers as they did in 2008 — 13 percent of the national vote versus 11 percent in 2004, which is more traditional. No longer motivated by passion, you can expect 2 million fewer blacks to pull the lever for Obama this time around, spelling doom for his re-election prospects.So romp on, Romney! Romp on!
There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.
The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.
Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.
Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.
I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.
Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.
As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.
Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.