I’m taking the easy route this morning. Bob Krumm has done the heavy lifting and we all owe him a click. Obama is toast, y’all!
Archive for the 2012 Category
All polls with 1000 or more respondents favor Romney; all polls with smaller than 1000 respondents favor Obama (or are tied).
Statisticians will tell you that the larger the sample size, the more reliable the poll. This fact is reflected in RCP’s “Margin of Error” (MoE) column, which shows a lower margin of error, and thus a greater level of reliability, for the large-sample pro-Romney polls. Each and every pro-Obama poll has a higher margin of error, and is thus less reliable.
These are the facts as they currently stand, and they’ve been true like this almost every day since soon after the first debate when Romney surged in popularity.
Obama is toast, y’all.
…and heeeeeerrrrrrre’s Barry the Toasted Marxist.
Why Mitt will Win.
Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in the Washington Post poll — taken after the conventions — Obama holds a slim, 1-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen’s state-by-state likely-voter data indicates a tie in the battleground states (according to Breitbart).
But it’s not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining ’04 and ’08 but skewing their samples to ’08 numbers. African-Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in ’04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in ’08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under-30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered in the affirmative for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.
For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say, 47 percent to 45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win 46 percent to 45.
President Obama is headed to defeat in November, and it won’t be close. Forget about the polls, and forget about the cadre of delusional Democrats who can’t stop telling us how great and successful the last three and a half years have been. Slick Willy can shill all he likes, but seriously, he’s preaching to the choir, because the only ones believing his shtick are bought and paid for sycophants, crony capitalists, and members of the mainstream media.
Can you think of a single person who didn’t vote for Barack Obama in 2008 but will vote for him this time around? Yet it is easy to find former minions admitting to the dissolution of their belief in the primacy of the “one.” These people will not vote for him again — and they are legion.
The issue easily topped other flash points in the race between Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.
Exactly half of registered voters in the poll said the plan by Romney’s running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, to restructure Medicare would be a major factor in their choice. Likewise for the difference between Democrats and Republicans on women’s issues, highlighted by recent controversial comments about rape by Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.).
Just 20% of respondents said Romney’s position on releasing his tax returns would be a major factor. Democrats have pushed Romney to release more than two years of his returns.
US embassies in the Muslim world were on high alert Friday following days of violent protests against an anti-Islam film. Germany, too, closed several embassies in fear of attacks. Some German commentators argue that the violence shows that Obama’s Middle East policies have failed.
That’s all for today.
The CNN/ORC International poll of registered and likely voters released Tuesday shows likely voters favoring Obama by 52 percent to 46 percent over Romney — evidence, pundits said, of a post-convention bump for the president.
But a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.
Romney also appears to have an advantage over Obama when it comes to voter enthusiasm.
The CNN/ORC International poll showed Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62 percent to 56 percent. The enthusiasm level helps determine which party will show up in greater numbers to vote.
Narcissus Maximus might consider some change of address arrangements.
Rich Lowery and The National Review talk to the Romney campaign about the media blitz to convince us that Romney is losing:
It’s horses**t. Nobody in Boston thinks we’re going to lose. We’re in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 bounce. It’s going to evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We’re up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they’ve been spinning for months now that it’s out of reach.
There was a Columbus Dispatch poll last week that had it 45-45.
That’s a more accurate picture of the state of the play there than any of the spin. PPP has these polls that just put chum in the water for the media. Sometimes I think there’s a conscious effort between the media and Chicago to get Republicans depressed. And I hope our friends realize that all these media analysts out there are Democrats WHO WANT US TO LOSE. And the more Washington DC controls our economy, the more important inside-the-beltway publications are and the more money they make. The 202 area code is dominated by people who will make more money if Obama is reelected, so it’s not just an ideological thumb they’re putting on the scale for him, it’s a business interest.
I actually think the other side is in a panic. You look at New Mexico closing up. And they’re not above 50 in any of their target states. Look, we’re raising money, they’re raising money, and it’s tight. This is a dogfight. But the numbers actually point to a Romney win barring something unforeseen.
I personally think Romney will romp.
Truth is stranger than the liberal fairy tale: Planned Parenthood distributes condoms with message: ‘Protect yourself from Romney & Ryan’. Bill O’Reilly gives them a richly deserved tweak:
During an appearance Monday evening on MSNBC, Fluke lashed out at Fox News host Bill O’Reilly for joking about the possibility that condoms might drop from the ceiling — not balloons — following her speech at the Democratic National Convention.
Absolutely, positively brutal:
Obama is not going to get the same free pass from the media in 2012 as he did in 2008. Seems as though rock bottom ratings might motivate some journalists to get off their collective tuckus and engage in, you know, journalism. Sheeesh.