Obama is Toast Marathon V4.11
…and heeeeeerrrrrrre’s Barry the Toasted Marxist.
Why Mitt will Win.
Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in the Washington Post poll — taken after the conventions — Obama holds a slim, 1-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen’s state-by-state likely-voter data indicates a tie in the battleground states (according to Breitbart).
But it’s not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining ’04 and ’08 but skewing their samples to ’08 numbers. African-Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in ’04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in ’08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under-30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered in the affirmative for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.
For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say, 47 percent to 45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win 46 percent to 45.
President Obama is headed to defeat in November, and it won’t be close. Forget about the polls, and forget about the cadre of delusional Democrats who can’t stop telling us how great and successful the last three and a half years have been. Slick Willy can shill all he likes, but seriously, he’s preaching to the choir, because the only ones believing his shtick are bought and paid for sycophants, crony capitalists, and members of the mainstream media.
Can you think of a single person who didn’t vote for Barack Obama in 2008 but will vote for him this time around? Yet it is easy to find former minions admitting to the dissolution of their belief in the primacy of the “one.” These people will not vote for him again — and they are legion.
The issue easily topped other flash points in the race between Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.
Exactly half of registered voters in the poll said the plan by Romney’s running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, to restructure Medicare would be a major factor in their choice. Likewise for the difference between Democrats and Republicans on women’s issues, highlighted by recent controversial comments about rape by Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.).
Just 20% of respondents said Romney’s position on releasing his tax returns would be a major factor. Democrats have pushed Romney to release more than two years of his returns.
US embassies in the Muslim world were on high alert Friday following days of violent protests against an anti-Islam film. Germany, too, closed several embassies in fear of attacks. Some German commentators argue that the violence shows that Obama’s Middle East policies have failed.
That’s all for today.