Obama is Toast Marathon v2.73
……and AWAAAAAY we go….
President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign warned supporters in an email plea for cash on Monday that Mitt Romney’s vast fundraising edge means “we’re in trouble” with scarcely three months to go before Election Day.
“We got beat three months in a row,” the campaign said in the unsigned message. “If we don’t step it up, we’re in trouble.”
President Barack Obama is having more difficulty keeping 2008 supporters on his side than Mitt Romney is having holding onto John McCain voters, according to a new Gallup poll.
I then continued to say that the election is not being held tomorrow and it’s going to be held in November and Romney’s going to win and I gave the reasons why that’s true.
How much of the unprecedented negativity of Obama’s re-election bid stems from personal animus and how much is the cold calculation of politics? Who knows, but those kinds of resentments often drive people to lose perspective.
The other danger is what animus like what Obama feels toward Romney does to the culture of a campaign.
Overall, the economy actually lost 1.2 million jobs in July, which in historical context is at least somewhat fewer than the past several years, but still more than were lost in July 2004, 2005, or 2006. Oddly, the private sector’s July raw employment increase is better than anything seen in the previous decade, but basically no better than last year, which at the time impressed no one.
Maybe we’re not doing it right.
That said, in off-the-record conversations with my left-leaning journalistic friends, not one believes Obama is going to win re-election. Not one. While most believe Mitt Romney to be a weak candidate, they are still convinced that he will comfortably defeat Obama on Nov. 6.
These liberal and jaded journalists privately admit that Obama has been exposed for what he is: an overhyped, self-invented candidate with no real-world experience who has been frozen into inaction by the enormity of the office he holds.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, vows to hit vulnerable Senate Democrats – such as Claire McCaskill (Mo.) – and Obama over the prices.
So one has to pierce through a lot of clutter to get any real sense of how the race is going. Given that actions speak louder than words, one thing you can do is look at where the candidates are spending their money: nearly all of Obama’s campaign spending (and Romney’s too) is directed at states that Obama carried in 2008. This means that notwithstanding the media cheerleading, Obama is playing defense, not offense.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
But polling shows people aren’t as fired up this time around. High-profile Democrats and labor bosses are actively encouraging members of Congress and supporters to skip the three-day affair, which was a four-day affair until underwhelming fundraising and the fear of underwhelming crowds forced Dems to cancel a festival at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
And, as Democrats slink reluctantly into their convention, what was supposed to be a triumphant moment for the Tar Heel State may become an embarrassing misfire, no matter how much Democratic officials, including the mayor of Charlotte, try to play it cool.