Possibly the most important metrics from Walker’s victory
As I checked for updates last night over at Legal Insurrection’s Live Feed, I’d see a periodic question about why the exit poll numbers differed substantially from actual results. I had a hunch and I looked around and I saw these numbers:
But despite Walker’s prolonged conflict with labor, he didn’t do any worse with the union vote this time than he did in 2010, according to exit polls. He won 37% of union households in 2010 and 38% in 2012 — about the number that polls show represents the percentage of voters in union households that are Republican.
Now, the assumption there is that all Pubs of the union label and almost no Dems voted for Walker… we all know better than that… but let’s take the 38% Pubs number for simplicity’s sake. That’s a simplistic -and confidential- performance metric in the ballot booth… let’s contrast that with union performance in the accounting ledger:
Wisconsin membership in the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees-the state’s second-largest public-sector union after the National Education Association, which represents teachers-fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011, according to a person who has viewed Afscme’s figures. A spokesman for Afscme declined to comment.
Roughly a 55% drop in economic support to one union when people are given their choice. Actual financial support to maintain the organization. Not quite as confidential as the ballot booth metric as unions have a way of knowing your business when it comes to dues. A decent sized gap between polling responses and rubber-meet-road money performance.
My hunch is that when asked about their voting performance in exit polls during the heat of a highly emotional moment, their words didn’t match their deeds. It’s easy to lie about the performance when within earshot of others who want you to vote a certain way. They’ll fudge the truth. Perhaps the Democrats had better make an appointment with their favorite Obamacare doctor before November… I think they’re going to suffer a Truthache.