President Thin Skin can add ‘One Termer’ to his online bio
Karl over at Patterico’s Pontifications takes a good look at the 2012 campaign dynamics with a healthy dose of history in the mix. There is also considerable analysis of the swing states here and last week we discussed a potential electoral tie where the Pubs pick the winner. Karl Rove weighs in declaring Indiana and North Carolina as going to Romney already….even before Romney picks a V.P. Dick Morris and James Carville are already sounding alarm bells for Obama and the Spendocrats but alas, those are some fairly sound proof ivory walls.
Mr. Hinderaker hits upon a personal dynamic that is beginning to emerge: the ‘likability gap’. It’s a personal dynamic that I believe distorts Obama’s chances.
Democrats have made much of President Obama’s supposed advantage over Mitt Romney in “likability,” as measured in various polls. My view has been that this edge is almost entirely illusory, because 1) telling a pollster that you like Obama personally is mostly a consolation prize after having expressed disapproval of his policies, and 2) most voters who don’t obsessively follow the Republican primary process have only a vague idea of Romney, but as they see more of him, they will find him plenty likable enough.
To add to Mr. Hinderaker’s point of view… not only is ‘liking’ Obama in a poll sample more than an inflated gimme… it could be that people in today’s society of racial anxiety don’t won’t to appear to be ‘racist’ even though their dislike is most likely not embedded in race.
Is it time to start discussing Romney Democrats? The economy is already worse than 1980 and Obama is making Carter look downright competent. I think once the Arkansas primary is finished next week and Scott Walker’s probable victory in Wisconsin… moderate Democrats will start panicking and start leaning towards Romney while publicly voicing support for Obama. Don’t want to be accused of racism, you understand.